Masters of War and the destruction of peace

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

After convening his national security team to discuss the crisis in Syria, President Obama decided to officially authorize the transfer of weapons to the Syrian rebels. The decision is a gamble with U.S. credibility. Moreover, the release of information, via anonymous sources, shows the fragility of the U.S. administration’s position and suggests the existence of a troubling disagreement among top administration officials. That is hardly the tone needed before committing the country to a military conflict that has thus far killed 93,000 people in Syria. The half-hearted commitment to solving the crisis in Syria by providing more tools of murder and destruction can only be saved by a clear and demonstrable success. Anything short of forcing Assad to leave office through political or military means cannot be considered success. This mission is more complicated than the 2003 war in Iraq, for many reasons.

A Turkish Spring even if different from the Arab Spring

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

The wide-spreading protest movement in Turkey is bringing up the irresistible analogy: Taksim Square is for Turkey what Tahrir Square is for Egypt. Considering that Tahrir Square events were the extension of the protest movement that started it all from Tunisia, it follows that the turmoil in Turkey is similar to the so-called Arab Spring. But most observers and media analysts are dismissing Taksim Square movement arguing that Turkey’s uprising is not similar to the Arab Spring because Erdoğan and his party are democratically elected and that Erdoğan has governed over a period of unprecedented economic prosperity.

Tunisia’s security syndrome

By Noureddine Jebnoun*

On May 19, the Tunisian government banned Ansar al- Sharia (Supporters of Sharia), a Salafist group, claiming to be jihadist, from holding its third annual rally in Kairouan – a city located 114 miles south-central of Tunis and which houses the mosque of the general Uqba Ibn Nafa‘a, the “conqueror of Africa” around 670 AD. The “battle of Kairouan”, heavily publicized by the Tunisian media did not occur, despite several clashes between the police and citizens of the same city who protested against the overwhelming police presence as well as the intrusion of the FEMEN movement activist Amina. Her sudden appearance in the city allegedly sought to disrupt Ansar al-Sharia’s congress, ended provoking the sensitivity of the locals while she wrote “FEMEN” on the wall of the graveyard next to the Uqba mosque.

Spinning the tragic Syria crisis won’t help stop it

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

Syrian rebels executing Alawites

Yesterday, responding to a Qatar-sponsored resolution, the U.N. General Assembly “condemned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces and praised the opposition.” A day before that, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that “at least 94,000 people have been killed during Syria's two-year conflict, but the death toll is likely to be as high as 120,000.” The group, known for its opposition to the Syrian regime, added that “at least 41,000 of those confirmed killed were Alawites, the sect of President Bashar al-Assad.” During several weeks leading to the vote, a gruesome video was circulating on the Internet. In the video, a leader of the Syrian opposition, whose identity was confirmed by human rights organizations and news media, was shown cutting the body of a Syrian soldier open and chewing on his internal organs while threatening the Alawite minority with the same fate. 

Turkey’s eroding reputation

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

Syrian rebel killing Syrian soldiers

It took law enforcement agencies of the United States nearly three days to identify the perpetrators of the recent terrorist bombing. It helped that the attack was in a modern city (Boston) and during a marathon event. Security cameras, spectators, and TV and media reporters on the scene helped gather evidence. Still, it took that much to identify the attackers.

In contrast, it took Turkish authorities just hours (if not minutes) to identify the perpetrators of the recent terrorist attack in Reyhanlı. Reyhanli is a remote town in the Hatay province, which borders Syria. The town did not have any security cameras and it is virtually on the edge of a war zone. The province is home to tens of thousands of refugees and thousands of Syrian rebels, many of whom are known terrorists and they have killed many Syrian civilians and bragged about it. Moreover, the attack occurred days after the announced start of PKK fighters’ withdrawal after nearly 25 years of insurgency. Despite all these circumstances, Turkish leaders immediately identified the attackers with precision:

To compete globally, BRICS nations need reputation, not imitation

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia* 

BRICS nations

The economic, political, and social rise of the Western block of nations was founded on the single most enduring currency: reputation. Reputation, the source of credibility and trust, is the real asset that allows the U.S. to project its stature around the world. BRICS nations cannot rise to prominence by mimicking developed countries. They must build their reputation first. Wealth is only a byproduct of this more precious commodity, and countries who have it can squander it just as emerging economies can acquire it. For either of those results to happen in any country, circumstantial conditions and principled actions must converge.

Delimiting a New World Order: Religion, Globalism, and the Syrian Crisis

Sovereignty, Legitimacy and the Responsibility to Protect: 

Who is responsible and who is legitimate in Syria?

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

Syria and the New Middle East

Western leaders’ conflicting statements underscore the unease about change in the Arab world. Unless one believes that diplomats speak unscripted, an earlier statement by U.S. secretary of State, John Kerry becomes extremely significant. He contended that the ultimate goal is to “see Assad and the Syrian opposition sitting at the same table to establish a transitional government as laid out in the Geneva Accords.” Perhaps, partly because of such conflicted statements that leaders from UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey have scheduled one-on-one meetings with President Obama. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is talking about Syria to key world leaders, including the presidents of France, Egypt, Iran, and BRICS countries. Most observers are predicting that the expected Obama-Putin meetings over summer will culminate in a unified stance on Syria. If that is the expectation, it might be too late for world leaders to predetermine the outcome of the Syrian crisis by September. The dynamics on the ground and the entrenched disparate interests of regional and global powers will make it extremely difficult to press the reset button. A simple review of the events of the last 60 days will show the complexity and centrality of the Syrian crisis. Simply put, the management of the war in Syria is no longer in the hands of the Syrians. It is now a global affair.

 

Full text of the Fifth BRICS Summit Declaration and action plan

DURBAN, South Africa, March 27: Leaders of the BRICS nations, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa wrapped up their latest round of summit Wednesday in South African city of Durban.

The following is the full text of the declaration and action plan of the summit:

Indonesia, Islam And Democracy

By Bawono Kumoro*

Indonesia

During a ceremony at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, where he received an honorary doctorate, President Yudhoyono tackled the global perception that Islam and democracy could not work together. The president said that he believed Indonesia was a good example to highlight how democracy, modernization and Islam worked hand in hand.
Furthermore, President Yudhoyono said Muslims in Indonesia are very comfortable with democracy and with modernity. Thus, the Indonesian democracy may well offer valuable lessons to Arab Spring countries who are now facing similar challenges.

On the need to balance endowments and academic integrity

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

The article in The Atlantic, The Emir of NYU (MAR 13, 2013), touched on a very important issue: academic freedom. It came on the heels of the no-confidence vote NYU’s faculty in the college of Arts and Science delivered against the president, John Sexton. President Sexton is renowned for creating satellite research and teaching centers around the world through a strategy he called The Global Network University. Specifically, the article pointed to the full degree-granting campus in Abu Dhabi and to faculty’s concerns “about academic freedom, diluting NYU's brand, human rights violations in Abu Dhabi, and discrimination against gay and Israeli students.”

The article failed to address the critically important issue of striking a balance between the need for funding higher education and preserving academic and scientific integrity. This problem is not new. Research scholars and institutions in exact sciences faced similar ethical and legal issues since they first took money from pharmaceuticals, agricultural companies involved in GMOs, defense industries, and government security and intelligence agencies.

Interview of President Assad with Turkish Media

Interview in English translation:

Interview in Arabic: Watch video

The full text of the interview:

The origins and evolution of the Grinch that derailed the Arab Spring

Jihadi Salafis as neo-Kharajites

by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

Witnessing the first democratic elections in Tunisia in 2011, I stood at the edge of the city listening to residents explaining the role of “neighborhood watch committees” in keeping peace and protecting personal and public property. I listened as my interlocutors told me stories of new connections emerging to create tighter relations between neighbors to face unprecedented violence and loss of security. On a rotating basis, residents, carrying wooden sticks, stood guard at the main intersection separating one neighborhood from another. To them, safety developed a new meaning. Without thinking of the American context (gun control debate) for my question, I asked if they would have felt safer if they had guns instead of sticks and brooms while guarding their families and properties. Without hesitation, one of the people accompanying me stated that he is alive because people did not have guns.  

On February 26 (2013), the Tunisian government announced that three suspects in the  murder of Chokri Belaid had been arrested and that authorities were searching for the person who shot the victim. Ali Laraydh, the current prime minister, stated that “extremist Islamists [islamiyyun mutashddidun] code name for Jihad Salafis, were behind the murder. This formal accusation confirms what many Tunisians had said even before the assassination:  Jihadi Salafis are behind the violence and unless they are restrained they will continue to use violence to intimidate and eliminate those who criticize them and oppose their interpretation of Islam.

Turkey's lost and future opportunities in Syria

by Foti Benlisoy and Annalena Di Giovanni

Turkey

A few months ago, in January 2013, an accident in a steel factory of Gaziantep, a bordering town in southwest Turkey, claimed the lives of seven workers. Under normal circumstances such news would have passed unobserved and eventually forgotten; Turkey is after all a country in which workplace accidents in factories are a daily, albeit silent, occurrence. But this time two among the seven workers were Syrians. And like most Syrians, they were unregistered, insecure, and deprived of any protective measures while on duty.

Syrian refugees, numbering in the hundreds of thousands, are the new source of manpower in southern factories. Employed outside any state regulation, they are desperate enough to accept work for any pay and condition. In a word, they are cheaper than local labour and Kurdish seasonal workers. Another very telling episode is that of a factory in Adıyaman where employees on strike are voicing concerns that they face the sack and replacement by cheaper and more submissive Syrian refugees. In a war of poor against poorer, local workers already uneasy with aid and facilities provided by the government to the refugee camps are now afraid to lose their jobs, while traders and merchants lament their plummeting revenues from exports and tourism in Syria. For the population of southern Turkey, the struggle against Bashar Al-Assad is simply a catastrophe. And for this catastrophe they are blaming the Erdoğan government, and his support to the Syrian opposition. 

MESA protests UAE "Blacklisting" of Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

*His Excellency Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan

Minister of Foreign Affairs

United Arab Emirates
via fax +971 02 444 7766

Your Excellency,

I write to you on behalf of the Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA) and its Committee on Academic Freedom (CAF) to register shock and deep dismay at the denial of entry into the United Arab Emirates of Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. Dr. Coates Ulrichsen is Co-Director of the Kuwait Research Programme at the London School of Economics (LSE) and an internationally recognized scholar of Gulf Arab politics. On February 22, he was on his way to a scholarly conference at the American University of Sharjah (AUS) that was jointly organized with the Middle East Centre at the LSE. The theme of the meeting was “The New Middle East: Transition in the Arab World.” His paper was entitled “Bahrain’s Uprising: Domestic Implications and Regional International Perspectives.” Immigration officials at the Dubai Airport detained him for forty-five minutes while they scrutinized his passport in detail. He was then informed that he was “blacklisted.” A representative of Emirates Air told him that he was denied entry and being sent back to London.

MESA was founded in 1966 to promote scholarship and teaching on the Middle East and North Africa. The preeminent organization in the field, the Association publishes the International Journal of Middle East Studies and has nearly 3,000 members worldwide. MESA is committed to ensuring academic freedom and freedom of expression, both within the region and in connection with the study of the region in North America and elsewhere.

On February 25, the official news agency of the UAE confirmed that Dr. Coates Ulrichsen had been denied entry because of views he has espoused in the course of his scholarly and educational work. An official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quoted which acknowledged that Dr. Coates Ulrichsen was denied entry because he had “consistently propagated views de-legitimizing the Bahraini monarchy.” Further, the Ministry explained, “The UAE took the view that at this extremely sensitive juncture in Bahrain’s national dialogue it would be unhelpful to allow non-constructive views on the situation in Bahrain to be expressed from within another GCC state.”

Subsequently, on February 26, the police chief of Dubai, Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, told the al-Riyadh newspaper: “Kristian is not welcome here. We blocked him from entering the country to protect its security and stability from his evil ideas.” With comments such as these, the United Arab Emirates is on record as condoning the flagrant violation of basic principles of academic freedom and freedom of expression.

The provost of the AUS informed the LSE on February 21 that he had received orders from the ruler’s office that no discussion of Bahrain was permissible at the upcoming meeting. The LSE issued a statement on February 22 that announced it was calling off its participation in the meeting that it helped to organize due to “restrictions imposed on the intellectual content of the event that threatened academic freedom.” Many of the participants, including Dr. Coates Ulrichsen, were already in transit as the academic conference collapsed.

The implications of this incident are serious and far-reaching. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, “This decision [to bar the scholar’s entry] in no way reflects the strong ties with both the AUS and LSE and their academic excellence.” Academic freedom is integral to—indeed, inseparable from—academic excellence. State intervention to silence scholarly interchange is anathema to academic freedom and, in the long run, corrosive of the overall environment for education at universities.

We ask that Dr. Coates Ulrichsen be removed from the “black list” and for assurances that he will be able to travel to the UAE free from restrictions based on the content of his scholarship. We request that you disavow the incendiary remarks of the Dubai police chief as well as the defamatory comments that are being repeated in numerous state-run outlets. We further call upon you to allow all academic conferences to proceed unhindered, whatever their topic or theme. Finally, we encourage you to pledge that no further state interference in scholarly discussion and debate will be tolerated at any university in the United Arab Emirates. These steps are necessary to quell the growing doubts in the international scholarly community about the integrity of the UAE’s numerous partnerships with foreign academic institutions to promote higher education in the Gulf.

Sincerely,

Peter Sluglett

MESA President
Visiting Research Professor, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore

Iraq: ten years of hubris and incompetence

by Zaid al-Ali 

Iraq 

Ten years after the 2003 war, the Iraqi government credits itself with a number of achievements. All foreign soldiers have left the country, the 2005 constitution was approved by 80% of the population, several rounds of elections have taken place in the absence of credible accusations of massive fraud, and the annual state budget has reached unheard of proportions.  And yet, the country has millions of poor who live in slums without access to any government services to speak of, and millions of others have left the country never to return. The government is once again rearming. Women’s rights have regressed. Political tensions, fueled by corruption, violence and sectarianism, appear to be worsening. 

Was this downwards spiral inevitable? Western and an increasing number of Iraqi analysts eagerly refer to ethno-sectarian divisions, and suggest that Iraq is a hopeless case as a result. But there are countries whose divisions are far more pronounced; fueled by differences in language, skin colour, religion, by a history of imperialism, colonisation and even slavery, many countries in Africa and Latin America have emerged as modern democracies in recent years. These countries not only had the benefit of good leadership, but also established clear rules according to which their countries were to be governed. In comparison, Iraq is a shameful affair: despite the incredible resources at its disposal, the country is clearly heading in the wrong direction.

There are many causes for this state of affairs, too many to address in any single analysis.  This article focuses on the rules that are designed to govern the political process, namely the 2005 constitution. The constitution was rushed, is undemocratic, and is rigged to encourage political tensions, instability and crisis. This is not "post-hindsight" analysis: in the summer of 2005, a few weeks before the referendum that was organised to approve the constitution, two of the world’s leading legal scholars travelled to Baghdad and studied the then draft constitution. They wrote an analysis which was circulated to key officials, but was not published at the time. Their conclusion was that, if applied, the constitution posed a “grave risk to state and society”. Their prophetic prognosis went unheeded and we are still paying the consequences today.