I recognize that it is injudicious to make emphatic predictions
like this one and it is especially impolitic to do so without access to all
information. In this case however, all critical information is publicly
available. The only important piece of information that we don’t know is
whether or not Iran has or is close to having a nuclear bomb. But all those who
are supposed to know don’t really know. The most recent estimate suggests that
Iran could have the capacity, the knowledge, and the material to produce
several crude nuclear bombs within one year. Similar claims were made at least
five other times in the past 25 years.
Increasingly, talking about Iran as a nuclear threat is
becoming an exclusive hobby for politicians. Although some of the Arab regimes
feel equally threatened by a nuclear Iran, only Israel seems to emerge as the
subject of this threat. Israeli leaders have made it clear that a nuclear Iran
is an existential threat and that they will do whatever is necessary to
eliminate that threat, including a preemptive military attack. Unexpectedly, some
U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, went as far as setting
a time for such an Israeli military strike: this spring. Nonetheless, here are
several reasons why, in my opinion, Israel will not attack Iran this year.
ONE: If past behavior is a predictor of future actions, we
know that Israel attacks other countries without announcing its intentions. Israel
attacked its neighbors’ nuclear installations twice before but it never announced
it beforehand. In 1981, Israel destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor
without warning. In 2007, Israel was thought to have demolished a nuclear
facility in the early stages of construction in an airstrike on Syria. Regarding
the second attack, Israel is yet to officially take credit for the bombing.
Israel has a habit of responding to any real or perceived threat by taking it
out without warning as it did in 1986 when its airplanes bombed the PLO
headquarters in Tunisia, again without...
Your reply to the article is full of false analogies.
ReplyDeleteVirus attack is not the same as bombing a country's infrastructure.
Please give us some other reasons the Iranians say publically as the reason behind their animosity with israel... I am sure you will find any that does not apply to any other muslim country.
But in any case, you or the author will be proven right in 11 months. So check back then.
I would suggest this article while waiting though:
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-s-end/israel-isn-t-likely-to-strike-iran-s-nuclear-program-this-time-1.412148