by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*
For the second time in several
months, Russia and China have vetoed a UNSC resolution concerning Syria. The
double veto last Saturday especially irritated U.S. and European leaders
because they thought that the Arab League’s proposal was revised several
times to meet Russia’s demands. Russia argued that Western states rushed
the vote, despite its request to wait until after its diplomatic envoys had visited
Damascus on Tuesday. Both Western governments and Russian have reasons to maintain this
bizarre diplomatic face-off, but the true reasons are not necessarily the stated
ones.
Russia’s position must be understood in the context
of its internal and regional geopolitics. The same can be said about the Arab League’s
proposal, which called on Assad to step down. Recent history, too, plays a
major role in this clash between Russia and the U.S., the Cold War
Era rhetoric.
Importantly, the Russian leadership may face unrest this
March if the scheduled elections returned Putin to the presidency and if the opposition forces find evidence of fraud that would force them to reject the results. The U.S. has already gone on record supporting Russian
protesters. Russia does not want the Arab Spring replayed in its streets, and
they believe that saving the Syrian government will be a test of their ability to
manage similar crises at home and abroad.
The uprising in Syria
is significant for Saudi Arabia, a country eager to weaken Iran. For this
reason, Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar, two key countries that are now controlling the Arab League, took leading roles in shaping the
political and military aspects of this crisis. Saudi and Qatari media's coverage
of the Syrian crisis has failed to refer to violent armed groups infiltrating the n0n-armed protester. Russia, on the
other hand, continues to insist that armed groups should take the blame for the increased
violence. Syria's state-controlled media blame most of the deaths on armed
groups (which it calls terrorists). Independent journalists, most recently a
crew from a Lebanese news outlet—al-Akhbar, described several border
towns as militarized “forward bases.” The Syrian uprising, initially peaceful,
has now been hijacked by armed militants who are financed and armed by Saudi
Arabia via Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey.
The Saudi involvement,
however, did more than sponsor armed rebel factions. It awakened Russia’s
dormant--but not forgotten--memory of the Saudi-American alliance that created
the Mujahidin networks in Afghanistan, which exhausted the Soviet Union and contributed to its collapse.
The Saudi rulers' role in the Syrian crisis is eerily similar to the one they played in
Afghanistan. Russia, the heir of the Soviet Union, does not want to repeat
history and lose its long alliance with Syrian government--its most reliable
ally in a critical region. Russia has decided it must challenge
the replication of the war of attrition of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan scenario. Russia has insisted on four
demands before it would support any UNSC resolution:
1: No UNSC resolution authorizing a regime change in Syria.
2. No UNSC resolution authorizing military intervention in
Syria.
3. No UNSC resolution banning arms sale to Syria.
4. No UNSC resolution condemning the Syrian regime’s
violence without condemning the violence perpetrated by the armed groups.
These are Russia’s red lines. Kremlin leaders are convinced that Saudi Arabia is arming Salafi groups and funneling money and weapons into Syria through its borders with Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. Some observers have concluded that Russia has already signaled to Assad that he should use military force to clear the towns. On Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and the head of the Russian foreign intelligence visited Assad to show their support. They insisted that armed groups should be held responsible for the violence against civilians and government security forces.
The U.S. on the other hand, is mulling the idea of arming
opposition groups. On Tuesday, John McCain, ranking member on the Senate Armed
Services Committee said that "we should start considering all options,
including arming the opposition." The Obama administration is “not considering
that step right now," according to White House spokesman Jay Carney.
Instead, the administration is "exploring the possibility of providing
humanitarian aid to Syrians." Although the White House played down the
suggestion, its lack of a comprehensive strategy for Syria leaves the
initiative in the hands of regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar–which are thought to be arming their favorite groups--members of Salafist and Brotherhood groups, respectively.
Clearly, the Syrian crisis is now turning into a regional
and international turf war. The Saudis are eager to use Syria to punish Iran and deprive that emerging regional power from its most reliable Arab ally. The United States is determined to see Iran further isolated to weaken its position ahead of the crucial nuclear talks.
Russia refuses to lose its historical ally, Syria, the same way the Soviet Union lost the government of Afghanistan in the 1970s. The Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated groups are
becoming political opportunists. And the Syrian people are suffering as their
government commences what it calls “decisive military action.”
Should this
conflict become more significantly militarized, and we have reasons to believe that it will be, the Syrian people’s hope for
representative governance will evaporate in the heat of a bloody proxy war.
The United States government in particular ought to be careful
pursuing a clandestine military partnership with the Saudi rulers. The last time it
did so, that partnership produced al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the group that attacked the U.S. homeland. This time, it will either bring al-Qaeda to Syria or create a beast far more dangerous than al-Qaeda that will be able to attach many homelands at once.
§ Photos of Syrian armed groups are
courtesy of al-Akhbar.
_____________________
* Prof.
SOUAIAIA teaches at the
University of Iowa. He is the author of the book, Contesting Justice. Opinions
expressed herein are the author’s, speaking as a citizen on matters of public
interest; not speaking for the university or any other organization with which
he is affiliated.
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