by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*
On October 31, I wrote, Who
is the Syrian Opposition?. Less than two weeks later, a new coalition of
opposition figures was born in Qatar, underscoring the erratic composition of
the groups fighting to oust Bashar Assad from power.
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Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, Riad Seif, Suhair al-Atassi, and Mustafa al-Sbbagh |
The Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and
Revolutionary Forces (SNCORF; also conveniently abbreviated as SCARF) is not
entirely a new opposition group. Rather it is a new umbrella organization
intended to replace the Syrian National Council (SNC) criticized last week by
Secretary Clinton for not being inclusive enough. The U.S. administration does not
seem interested in representative groups as much as it is interested in
political organizations that are actually capable of exerting control over armed
groups. Understandably, the U.S. administration is concerned about sophisticated
weapons falling in the hands of terrorist groups threatening U.S. security and
interests. These concerns were heightened in September when some rebel group in
Libya attacked the U.S. consulate in Benghazi and killed the Ambassador and
members of his security detail.
Members of the SNC resisted the unification plan and
was said to agree only when Qatar and other Gulf States threatened to withdraw financial
and political support. In the end, instead of a birth of a more representative
opposition, the old body was re-created with a new name.
The new entity is headed by a president, Ahmed Moaz
al-Khatib, a Sunni preacher from Damascus and two vice presidents, Riad Seif
and Suhair al-Atassi. A Syrian businessman based in the Gulf, Mustafa al-Sbbagh,
was appointed general secretary. A third vice president post reserved for a
Kurdish representative remained vacant. The SNCORF will consist of 60 seats, 22 of which are
reserved for the SNC. The rest of the seats are divided among the Local
Revolutionary Councils (14), the National Kurdish Council (3), Turkmen
community (3), major opposition figures (9), and other organizations (9). How much sway do these individuals exert over armed militias is unknown at this point.
Members of SNCORF claim that they represent 90% of
the Syrians. Evidently, that is a highly exaggerated number and there is no
reliable way of ascertaining that that number is true since these persons were
not elected. Having Kurdish and Christian persons on this board does not necessarily
mean that they actually represent those communities. The SNC was portrayed as an inclusive opposition group until Sunday; they too, had a Kurd and now
a Christian serve as presidents of the SNC. Many Kurdish, Christian, and other
minority groups were not represented in the SNC and are not represented in
SNCORF. Another opposition coalition representing 13 leftist and centrist
political parties working under the banner of National Coordination Committee
for the Forces of Democratic Change, which includes the Kurdish Democratic
Union Party, is not included in SNCORF.
The creation of SNCORF could be a step in the right
direction if the opposition forces were to adopt a strategy that will result in
ending violence. However, the platform adopted immediately after the formation
of SNCORF states that the central conditions for joining the organization are: commitment to overthrowing the regime, refusing to negotiate with the regime,
and planning to dismantle all state institutions including the security and
military forces. These conditions echo the deba`thification
policy in Iraq, which caused more instability and security risks despite the
presence of more than 160,000 U.S. troops. To refuse to talk to Assad is one thing, but
to refuse to talk to anyone from the current regime is to embrace the military
solution to the exclusion of any political settlement. Short of a decisive military
intervention under UNSC resolution, most likely to be blocked by Russia and
China, arming the rebels will only prolong killing and destruction.
___________________
* Prof.
SOUAIAIA teaches at the University of Iowa. Opinions expressed herein are
the author’s, speaking as a citizen on matters of public interest; not speaking
for the university or any other organization with which he is affiliated.
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