And what do the P5+1 want from Iran?
by
Ahmed E. Souaiaia*
Iran and the P5+1 group
(United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany) are to resume
negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan on February 26. Their last meeting was eight-month
ago in Moscow. That meeting did not produce a breakthrough and that was
expected because, in part, the U.S. was not prepared to offer anything of
significance at a time when the president was facing re-election. With Obama
re-elected and a new national security team being put in place, both sides must
feel that they can make some progress. Otherwise there would be no reason to try
again. That much was signaled by the new Secretary of State John Kerry who encouraged
Iran two days ago (on Friday) to make a serious offer and promised that “the
international community is ready to respond”. So what can Iran offer? Or more importantly,
what can’t Iran offer?
Here are some of the
key points upon which Iran appears to be unwilling to compromise:
1. Iran’s right to
nuclear enrichment: Iran says that, before any agreement can be reached, the
P5+1 must formally recognize Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy and to enrich
uranium under the framework of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty).
2. Serious offers only:
Iran wants the P5+1 to make only credible offers in return for Iran’s
reassurances that the nuclear program remains peaceful and any actions that it
may take towards that goal. Specifically, Iran finds the offer of spare parts
for its aging Boeing airplanes in return for the suspension of uranium
enrichment to be insulting.
3. No threats: Iran
wants the U.S. and E.U. to rescind the unilateral sanctions they imposed on key
Iranian products and institutions. Iran argues that Western states may refuse
to deal with Iran if they choose to do so, but they cannot punish other
countries for having trade relations with Iran.
From the point of view
of Iranian leadership, these three points appear to be the foundation for any
agreement. It appears that all previous meetings have come to a halt because
these points were not satisfactorily addressed in the eyes of the Iranian
leaders.
The P5+1 have gone to
these meetings with two goals in mind:
1. Nuclear Technology:
The P5+1 seem interested in denying Iran the capacity and capability to domestically
enrich any amount of uranium to any level.
2. Nuclear material:
The P5+1 want Iran to remove almost all nuclear materials out of the country
and import all enriched uranium and nuclear fuel it needs instead.
These are the broad
goals for each side of these diplomatic negotiations. But both parties have
brought forth other issues. With the rise in sectarian strife in the region and
increased instability in the Middle East, both sides hinted at broadening the negotiations
to include other matters of common interest. But those issues are no more than useful
enticement tools. The nuclear standoff remains the single most important issue
for Western countries and for Iran at the same time.
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