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Future of Syria: not bringing this crisis under control now could divide Syria along ethnic and sectarian fault lines. |
Since 2012, many observers and
scholars familiar with the Syrian crisis have advised against arming
Syrian rebels and warned about the risks of turning that country into a
powder keg, endangering peace in that volatile region. Those early predictions are
now a reality. Reacting to recent developments, U.S. and British officials announced
that they are suspending delivery of aid to Syrian rebels when the Free
Syrian Army’s depots were overrun by al-Qaeda affiliates. Video footage shows that the Free Syrian Army had actually received more than “non-lethal
aid.” Rebels fighters claims that they found anti-aircraft weapons, sophisticated guns, and munitions.
Anticipating or reacting
to these developments, Saudi Arabia, through groups it funds, launched a
determined (but failed) attack on Damascus’ east Ghutah, Turkey closed some
of its border crossings with Syria, and leaders
of the Free Syrian Army fled to Europe, Turkey, and Qatar.
Importantly, armed
rebels reorganized themselves into new coalitions (Army of Islam and Islamic
Front) and withdraw their membership in the Syrian National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, a political
organization Saudi Arabia and some Western countries have recognized as the
sole “legitimate” representative of the Syrian people. These astounding
developments are revealed just six weeks before an international meeting, Geneva-2,
that is supposed to force the Syrian government and opposition to find a
political solution to a brutal conflict, which killed more than 110,000 people
from both sides, displaced nearly five million people, and destabilized Iraq,
Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan.
The handling of the
Syrian crisis is revealed policies that were dictated by short term political
gains, ulterior motives, and/or on the faulty grounds. Syria’s initially peaceful
protest movement was hijacked and militarized by regional and world state
actors. The cost of such an ill-advised adventure did not just destroy Syria,
but it produced dangerous conditions for the entire world. The Syrian crisis, if allowed to spiral out of control will have repercussions on all those who enabled and supported
violence in Syria. Notwithstanding these conditions, all parties have a window of opportunity to stop this cycle
of cruelty: the partners in destruction need to take full responsibility and
build a partnership for peace to help Syria overcome hatred and exclusion and
work towards reconciliation.
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* Prof. SOUAIAIA teaches at the University of Iowa. His
most recent book, Anatomy
of Dissent in Islamic Societies, provides a historical and theoretical
treatment of rebellious movements and ideas since the rise of Islam. Opinions
are the author’s, speaking on matters of public interest; not speaking for the
university or any other organization with which he is affiliated.
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